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Fusion and the Ultimate Energy Arbitrage

A Revolution Brewing in the Energy World

You know that feeling when you’re standing at the edge of something huge? That’s where we are with fusion energy right now. We’re talking about the same process that powers the sun, and it’s finally knocking on our door. For decades, fusion was this running joke in science circles, always “50 years away.” But here’s the thing: it’s not anymore.

In late 2022, something remarkable happened. Scientists at Lawrence Livermore’s National Ignition Facility achieved what many thought impossible, they got more energy out of a fusion reaction than they put in. Think of it as the Wright Brothers moment for fusion energy. And since then? The floodgates have opened. Nearly 40 fusion startups worldwide have attracted over $7.1 billion in funding, and they’re not just playing around in labs anymore.

What’s really exciting is the timeline. Commonwealth Fusion Systems began constructing their SPARC tokamak in 2021 and expects to demonstrate net energy from fusion by 2025. They’re planning to have their ARC reactor, a 400 MW commercial fusion power plant, ready to connect to the grid in the early 2030s. TAE Technologies is working on their Copernicus prototype with operations expected by 2025, aiming for their first commercial plant by the early 2030s. And get this, Helion Energy actually signed a Power Purchase Agreement with Microsoft in May 2023 to deliver at least 50 MW of fusion power by 2028. That’s the world’s first fusion power sales contract!

When Energy Becomes Almost Free

Here’s where things get really interesting. What happens when electricity costs plummet to almost nothing? We’re talking about prices dropping to around $0.001 per kilowatt-hour. At that rate, running a 1 GW industrial plant continuously for an entire year would cost only about $8.8 million in electricity, compared to roughly $880 million at today’s prices of $0.10/kWh.

Think about what this means for a moment. The fuel for fusion, deuterium, is as common as seawater. A single liter of water contains enough fusion fuel to produce as much energy as burning 300 liters of oil, with zero carbon emissions. Once we get standardization and factory production of reactors rolling, the capital cost per kWh will plummet too. Companies like Helion are even developing direct electricity generation methods that skip the inefficient steam turbines altogether.

This isn’t just about cheaper energy bills. It’s about completely reimagining what’s possible. Remember how the internet changed everything once bandwidth became cheap? That’s what we’re looking at with energy. Materials and mining operations that are currently too energy-intensive become viable. Aluminum extraction, steel production, and critical minerals processing could see their costs drop dramaticaly. We could see manufacturing reshoring to high-demand markets because cheap power erodes the advantage of low labor cost regions.

Business in an Energy-Abundant World

So what does this mean for business? Well, imagine not having to worry about energy efficiency as your primary goal anymore. Instead, you optimize for output and quality. Data centers could run at maximum performance 24/7 without sweating the electric bill. Manufacturing lines could operate extra shifts without concern for peak electricity pricing. The whole game changes.

I find the agricultural implications particularly fascinating. Indoor vertical farms currently struggle with profitability largely due to enormous lighting and HVAC energy costs. With fusion-level cheap electricity, that barrier disappears. We could grow produce in climate-controlled vertical warehouses right next to cities, dramatically shortening supply chains and reducing spoilage. It’s a model that becomes viable only when energy input is no longer punitive.

And here’s something that might surprise you: geographic constraints on industry largely disappear. Historically, industries located themselves based on access to cheap energy or raw materials. Aluminum smelters cluster near hydro dams, petrochemicals near oil fields, server farms in low-cost electric regions. Fusion obliterates these constraints. A World Economic Forum report notes that with fusion, even heavy industry could be reshored to the U.S. and Europe to be near consumers, because energy would be universally affordable.

We’re also looking at entirely new business models. When energy is nearly free, some existing business models get disrupted while new ones emerge. Utilities might shift from selling kilowatt-hours to providing infrastructure and reliability services. We could see “energy-as-a-service” models where companies install fusion units on-site for large users and charge subscription fees for guaranteed uptime and maintenance.

The Geopolitical Game-Changer

Now, let’s talk about what this means for global politics. It’s huge. Any country with technical capacity can install fusion plants and produce its own baseload power, without fuel imports. This genuinely transforms everything. Countries in energy-poor regions could become self-sufficient, eroding the strategic leverage of current petro-states.

As an analysis by the U.S. Special Competitive Studies Project bluntly states, nations with indigenous fusion energy “will be resilient to geopolitical pressures and supply chain issues” that currently plague fossil fuel supply. The power in energy politics shifts from controlling fuel to controlling technology.

Think about what happens to oil-dependent economies. As fusion scales, demand for hydrocarbons could plummet. Middle Eastern petrostates might pivot to investing in fusion and exporting electricity or technology rather than crude. Russia’s leverage over Europe via natural gas? Gone. No one needs pipeline gas when 300 MW fusion plants can be built on European soil providing endless power.

But it’s not all disruption. We’re already seeing new energy alliances forming. The US and UK have a fusion collaboration agreement. Japan and the EU are cooperating on fusion research. John Kerry announced an international fusion cooperation initiative in 2023, recognizing that global problems call for shared fusion development.

Beyond Today’s Industries

What really gets me excited is thinking about the industries that fusion will enable, things that are currently impractical due to energy constraints. Take desalination, for instance. Fresh water scarcity is a pressing global issue, largely because desalination of seawater is incredibly energy-intensive. With near-free electricity, desalination plants can run at full capacity continuously. The U.S. Department of Energy noted that overcoming desal’s energy cost would be “critical for development,” and fusion provides exactly that solution.

We could literally create green deserts. Using fusion-powered desalination, countries could irrigate and plant huge swaths of desert land, creating new agricultural zones or even carbon-sink forests. Coastal megacities like Los Angeles or Cape Town could become water-independent, with fusion desal plants producing millions of cubic meters of fresh water daily at negligible cost.

Then there’s space. Fusion could kickstart a space industrial revolution. Fusion rocket concepts promise far higher thrust and efficiency than chemical rockets. Several startups and agencies are already researching fusion propulsion, with roadmaps targeting spacecraft prototypes in the 2030s. Fusion-powered rockets could cut travel time to Mars dramatically and enable fast missions to the outer planets.

And what about climate engineering? Direct air capture of CO₂, literally sucking carbon out of the atmosphere, is hugely energy-intensive. Today it’s uneconomic beyond boutique projects. But with near-free fusion electricity, we could deploy massive banks of CO₂ scrubbers to actively reduce greenhouse gases. Companies focusing on climate solutions should realize that energy will not constrain their ambition in a fusion future.

Investing in the Fusion Revolution

So how do you ride this wave? Well, first you need to evaluate fusion ventures carefully. Look at their technical approach and timeline claims. Commonwealth Fusion’s use of established tokamak physics plus breakthrough superconducting magnets lends them credibility, they hit a record 20 Tesla magnet in 2021. Helion’s achieved 100 million °C plasma and is recovering electricity from pulses, showing real progress.

Pay attention to who’s backing these companies. Strong backing by credible investors like Breakthrough Energy Ventures, NEA, or major sovereign funds, plus strategic partners like energy utilities or tech giants, de-risks the path. Helion’s power supply agreement with Microsoft is a huge vote of confidence. CFS partnering with Dominion Energy to site their first plant in Virginia signals a clear route to commercial deployment.

Don’t just look at fusion reactor builders though. Consider the enabling technologies that all fusion efforts will need. High-performance superconductors, cryogenics, vacuum systems, and plasma control electronics are likely to see a surge in demand. Companies developing durable reactor materials or recycling solutions could corner important markets.

And remember, fusion ventures are high-risk, high-reward. It may make sense to invest in a portfolio of approaches, knowing that not all will succeed but one or two home-runs could more than pay off. Large corporates might invest via partnerships or minority stakes to gain a window into progress without betting the farm.

Hedging Your Bets

While I’m optimistic about fusion, we need to plan for uncertainty. Smart executives incorporate fusion into their long-range scenario planning. Develop at least two scenarios: one where fusion is delayed or achieves only limited adoption by 2040, and another where fusion achieves grid parity by 2035 and scales rapidly.

Until fusion is proven at scale, maintain energy diversity. Continue with efficiency projects, they have immediate ROI and hedge against fusion being later than hoped. Keep investing in renewables and storage to decarbonize in the interim. But avoid making “either/or” bets. Stay flexible and favor energy investments that are modular and can be repurposed.

Set up a radar for fusion progress. Watch for signals like prototypes achieving net power for sustained periods, major government orders for pilot plants, or breakthroughs in critical technologies. If Helion delivers on their Microsoft contract by 2028, that’s a strong sign the disruption is accelerating.

Most importantly, start building organizational capabilities around fusion and high-abundance energy. Assign a team to stay educated on fusion developments. Encourage adaptive thinking in your organization. Signal that big changes in energy are possible and that agility will be rewarded.

The Time to Act is Now

We’re standing at an inflection point. The 2025-2035 decade will likely determine the winners and losers of the next century’s energy economy. For C-suite executives, the mandate is clear: be urgently optimistic, and actively prepared.

Build internal expertise. Appoint someone to monitor fusion developments and network with providers. Evaluate your capital allocation, perhaps investing in fusion-adjacent startups or allocating R&D budget to pilot projects that assume abundant energy. Engage in policy dialogues, advocating for government funding of fusion R&D and sensible regulation.

Most crucially, drive a culture of innovation and “abundance mindset” in your organization. Encourage teams to think imaginatively about what they’d do if energy wasn’t a limit. This question can spark innovative ideas now, some of which might even be actionable with current renewable energy.

The companies that leverage fusion’s rise by slashing energy costs, pioneering new industries, and enabling global sustainability will shape the next century. Just as the steam engine, electricity, and digital technology defined past economic eras, fusion power is poised to define the coming one.

As one industry CEO put it upon announcing a fusion pilot plant: “The ambition is to build thousands of these power plants and change the world.” For business leaders, the ambition should be to ride that wave, and change your world in the process.

The future isn’t something that happens to us. It’s something we create. And with fusion energy finally within reach, we have the chance to create a future of abundance, sustainability, and possibilities we can barely imagine today. The question isn’t whether fusion will transform our world, it’s whether you’ll be ready when it does.

Dejan Dan Keri